IN NUMBERS: How Antonelli’s points advantage compares to previous seasons

With five rounds of the 2026 season complete, Kimi Antonelli holds a 43-point lead over team mate George Russell in the World Championship standings, a gap that grew following Russell’s retirement from the Canadian Grand Prix.

The turn of events led Russell to comment that “it feels like somebody doesn't want me to fight or compete for this championship”. However, a glance back at past seasons highlights just how much the title is still very much all to play for.

Our data team have been delving into how Antonelli’s advantage compares to previous championship fights from years gone by – and how, on several occasions, a significant gap has later been overturned.

To keep things fair, we have focused on seasons where the current points system (used since 2010) has been in effect – as well as examining an interesting parallel in another category of motorsport at the end…

Fernando Alonso vs Sebastian Vettel

Two particularly memorable title duels played out between Fernando Alonso – during his time with Ferrari – and Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel, the first being in 2010. Alonso was already 25 points clear of Vettel after the opening two rounds, but a win for the latter at Round 3 – where Alonso retired – put the pair on equal points, though the other Ferrari of Felipe Massa had moved into P1.

The lead would go on to change hands several times amongst numerous drivers, but Alonso had returned to the top with two rounds to spare. Vettel, meanwhile, held P3 entering into the Abu Dhabi finale, a race unique for being the first time in the sport’s history that four drivers remained in contention for the championship.

An eventful Grand Prix saw Alonso’s challenge fade as he found himself stuck behind the Renault of Vitaly Petrov for many laps – all while Vettel took the lead and claimed a somewhat against-the-odds win to seal his maiden crown.

Another interesting Alonso/Vettel fight took place in 2012. The season got off to a competitive start, with each of the opening seven races being won by a different driver. Alonso became the first repeat winner at Round 8 and also headed the World Championship standings.

By Round 11, Alonso held a 42-point advantage over third-placed Vettel – but a run of four back-to-back victories for the Red Bull man later in the season saw him eclipse his rival at the top of the board.

Arriving into the final round in Brazil, Vettel led Alonso by 13 points – and while Vettel’s chances of sealing a third championship initially looked perilous after a first-lap spin, the German did enough to take the crown by three points from Alonso.

Lewis Hamilton vs Nico Rosberg

The 2014 season marked the beginning of the turbo-hybrid era, a new regulation phase that Mercedes appeared to have aced. While it was not an entirely perfect start for the team at Round 1 in Australia – given that Lewis Hamilton retired with an engine problem – Nico Rosberg claimed an early lead in the championship by taking victory.

A spree of wins for Hamilton saw the Briton take over at the top after Round 5, but Rosberg seized the momentum again and had opened up a gap of 29 points following Round 8, another event in which Hamilton recorded a DNF.

Rosberg continued to hold P1 until the end of Round 14 in Singapore, where Hamilton again embarked on a run of victories. Both drivers entered the Abu Dhabi finale with a chance to claim the title, but Hamilton ultimately scored his second World Championship and first as a Mercedes driver.

Lewis Hamilton vs Sebastian Vettel

In 2017, Hamilton was looking to reclaim the title following Rosberg’s triumph – and subsequent retirement – at the end of the previous season. But the Briton would face a close challenge from the Ferrari of Vettel, with the four-time World Champion winning the opening round in Australia.

While the pair drew equal on points after Round 2, Vettel remained in the lead and held an edge of 25 points by Round 6. The momentum swung in Hamilton’s favour, however, in the second half of the campaign, the Mercedes driver overhauling Vettel in the standings after Round 13.

Such was Hamilton’s growing advantage from there that he earned the title with two races to spare in Mexico, eventually ending the year with 363 points in comparison to Vettel’s 317.

Max Verstappen vs Charles Leclerc

Another rules reset in 2022 introduced the ground effect era, and it was Ferrari that enjoyed a particularly strong start to this regulation set. Charles Leclerc was the name at the top of the championship across the opening rounds, having taken victories in Bahrain and Australia.

Max Verstappen, meanwhile, had recorded a DNF in each of those races, meaning that he was 46 points adrift of Leclerc after the third round of the season. But the Dutchman soon bounced back, climbing up to P2 over the next two events before snatching the leader’s position from Leclerc following Round 6 in Spain, where the Monegasque retired from the lead with an engine issue.

As Ferrari’s charge fell away through the rest of the year, Verstappen did not relinquish the P1 slot and clinched his second World Championship at the 18th round of the campaign in Japan, with four events still remaining.

Lando Norris vs Oscar Piastri vs Max Verstappen

A particularly dramatic three-way title battle developed in 2025, one in which a points deficit of more than 100 points was overturned. Lando Norris became the first to head the championship, before McLaren team mate Oscar Piastri took over at Round 5 following a sequence of wins.

While the papaya duo remained closed in the standings, reigning champion Max Verstappen fell away to as far back as 104 points from Piastri after the 15th round. However, an extraordinary resurgence from the Red Bull racer during the second half – along with a tough spell for Piastri and a solid run for Norris – saw Verstappen rapidly close in again.

Norris took the lead from Piastri at Round 20, while Verstappen leapfrogged the latter in the closing rounds to become Norris’ closest challenger at the Abu Dhabi finale. All three remained mathematically in contention for the crown, but it was Norris who just fended off Verstappen to claim a maiden championship by two points.

How could Kimi Antonelli vs George Russell unfold?

So how might the remainder of the campaign pan out for the Antonelli vs Russell battle? Well, as these prior examples have highlighted, there are likely to be plenty of twists and turns ahead, meaning that predicting the outcome is an impossible feat.

However, our data team examined what would happen if both Mercedes drivers recorded the same results as they did in 2025 through the rest of the current season. If this were to occur, Antonelli would continue to hold the lead across the next few rounds – but, having faced a tricky run during the European leg last year, the data shows that the Italian would be overtaken by Russell around Round 11.

The Briton would then collect enough points to remain in that position for the rest of the championship and finish ahead of his team mate.

And over at MotoGP…

Dramatic points overhauls are not just confined to Formula 1, of course. As things stand, an Italian leads the championship in both F1 and MotoGP for the first time since 1952, with Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi currently on top in the latter’s standings ahead of team mate Jorge Martin.

Needless to say, racing on two wheels holds plenty of differences to the four-wheeled variety – but in honour of that stat, our data team took a look at a particularly standout title swing from the world of MotoGP too.

Back in 2021, Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo had claimed the championship while Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia was forced to settle for P2. Quartararo’s bid to retain his crown was looking strong in 2022, the Frenchman holding a whopping 91 points more than Bagnaia at the halfway point of the season.

But it was Bagnaia that enjoyed the better run during the second portion of the championship, collecting five wins while Quartararo did not return to the top step. The Italian surged to the top of the standings after Round 18 of 20, before going on to seal the title by 17 points from Quartararo.